What is ZOL.L's DCF valuation?

Zoltav Resources Inc (ZOL.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Zoltav Resources Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $10.50, this represents a potential upside of -1208.0%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -1237.6%
Potential Upside (10-year) -1208.0%
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.8% - 8.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $1244 million in 12-2020 to $1788 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.7%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2020 1244 2%
12-2021 1318 6%
12-2022 1344 2%
12-2023 1424 6%
12-2024 1452 2%
12-2025 1491 3%
12-2026 1555 4%
12-2027 1641 5%
12-2028 1673 2%
12-2029 1707 2%
12-2030 1788 5%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -79% in 12-2020 to -58% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2020 (980) -79%
12-2021 (937) -71%
12-2022 (918) -68%
12-2023 (934) -66%
12-2024 (916) -63%
12-2025 (904) -61%
12-2026 (936) -60%
12-2027 (980) -60%
12-2028 (992) -59%
12-2029 (1,004) -59%
12-2030 (1,044) -58%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $512 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 35% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2021 506
12-2022 510
12-2023 540
12-2024 537
12-2025 491
12-2026 507

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 44
Days Inventory 7
Days Payables 93

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2021 (233) (60) 230 113 (516)
2022 (438) (118) 469 (43) (747)
2023 (422) (120) 497 (28) (770)
2024 (402) (117) 507 53 (844)
2025 (433) (116) 521 (4) (833)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 7.8% - 8.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 4.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1237.6%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1208.0%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(16,663)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(16,180)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Zoltav Resources Inc (ZOL.L) a buy or a sell? Zoltav Resources Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Zoltav Resources Inc (ZOL.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1208.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -79% to -58%)
  • Steady revenue growth (3.7% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $10.50.