As of June 12, 2025, Young & Co's Brewery PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $912.73 per share. With the current market price at $958.00, this represents a potential upside of -4.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $604.81 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $912.73 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -36.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -4.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 7.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $389 million in 04-2024 to $856 million by 04-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 389 | 5% |
| 04-2025 | 496 | 28% |
| 04-2026 | 512 | 3% |
| 04-2027 | 532 | 4% |
| 04-2028 | 561 | 5% |
| 04-2029 | 604 | 8% |
| 04-2030 | 647 | 7% |
| 04-2031 | 710 | 10% |
| 04-2032 | 759 | 7% |
| 04-2033 | 800 | 5% |
| 04-2034 | 856 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 04-2024 to 5% by 04-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 11 | 3% |
| 04-2025 | 19 | 4% |
| 04-2026 | 21 | 4% |
| 04-2027 | 23 | 4% |
| 04-2028 | 26 | 5% |
| 04-2029 | 30 | 5% |
| 04-2030 | 32 | 5% |
| 04-2031 | 35 | 5% |
| 04-2032 | 37 | 5% |
| 04-2033 | 39 | 5% |
| 04-2034 | 42 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $38 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 14% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 04-2025 | 45 |
| 04-2026 | 55 |
| 04-2027 | 63 |
| 04-2028 | 70 |
| 04-2029 | 75 |
| 04-2030 | 79 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 4 |
| Days Inventory | 27 |
| Days Payables | 80 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7M/2025 | 49 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 | 97 | 11 | 71 | 0 | 15 |
| 2027 | 109 | 12 | 74 | (1) | 24 |
| 2028 | 121 | 13 | 78 | 0 | 29 |
| 2029 | 132 | 15 | 84 | (0) | 34 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 604.81 | -36.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 912.73 | -4.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 613.93 | -35.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 892.24 | -6.9% |
Is Young & Co's Brewery PLC (YNGA.L) a buy or a sell? Young & Co's Brewery PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Young & Co's Brewery PLC (YNGA.L) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -4.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $958.00.