As of May 23, 2025, Yangarra Resources Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.47 to $4.80 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $4.53 | +397.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $4.28 | +370.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $1.47 | +62.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $1.48 | +62.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $4.80 | +427.4% |
Is Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $0.91, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Yangarra Resources Ltd's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.62 | 1.86 |
| Cost of equity | 11.4% | 15.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 23.1% | 24.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.0% | 9.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $4 | $552M | 68.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $5 | $576M | 47.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $3 | $406M | 56.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $4 | $478M | 36.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $49M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.8% - 7.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $504M - $703M |
| Net Debt | $120M |
| Equity Value | $383M - $583M |
| Outstanding Shares | 101M |
| Fair Value | $4 - $6 |
| Selected Fair Value | $4.80 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $92M |
| Enterprise Value | $212M |
| Trailing P/E | 4.06 |
| Forward P/E | 3.22 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 2.45 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.29 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $1.36 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $1.07 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.29 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.22 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.48 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $3.43 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Yangarra Resources Ltd's weighted average intrinsic value is $3.43, which is approximately 276.5% above the current market price of $0.91.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Yangarra Resources Ltd is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.