As of May 23, 2025, Yangarra Resources Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $4.53 per share. With the current market price at $0.91, this represents a potential upside of 397.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $4.28 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $4.53 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 370.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 397.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 9.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $125 million in 12-2024 to $173 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 125 | 18% |
| 12-2025 | 142 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 152 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 143 | -6% |
| 12-2028 | 148 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 151 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 154 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 158 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 161 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 165 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 173 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 21% in 12-2024 to 20% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 26 | 21% |
| 12-2025 | 28 | 20% |
| 12-2026 | 30 | 20% |
| 12-2027 | 29 | 20% |
| 12-2028 | 30 | 20% |
| 12-2029 | 30 | 20% |
| 12-2030 | 31 | 20% |
| 12-2031 | 32 | 20% |
| 12-2032 | 32 | 20% |
| 12-2033 | 33 | 20% |
| 12-2034 | 35 | 20% |
with a 5-year average of $81 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 58% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 88 |
| 12-2026 | 88 |
| 12-2027 | 82 |
| 12-2028 | 80 |
| 12-2029 | 86 |
| 12-2030 | 87 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 70 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 106 | 6 | 62 | (1) | 39 |
| 2026 | 145 | 9 | 88 | 4 | 43 |
| 2027 | 135 | 9 | 83 | (2) | 45 |
| 2028 | 136 | 9 | 86 | 0 | 40 |
| 2029 | 142 | 9 | 88 | 1 | 44 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 4.28 | 370.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 4.53 | 397.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.84 | 211.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.55 | 289.8% |
Is Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR.TO) a buy or a sell? Yangarra Resources Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Yangarra Resources Ltd (YGR.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 397.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.91.