As of June 2, 2025, 22nd Century Group Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.75, this represents a potential upside of -35451.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -25082.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -35451.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 6.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $24 million in 12-2024 to $236 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 24 | 24% |
| 12-2025 | 30 | 21% |
| 12-2026 | 55 | 87% |
| 12-2027 | 74 | 33% |
| 12-2028 | 92 | 24% |
| 12-2029 | 110 | 20% |
| 12-2030 | 135 | 23% |
| 12-2031 | 160 | 19% |
| 12-2032 | 184 | 15% |
| 12-2033 | 210 | 15% |
| 12-2034 | 236 | 12% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -64% in 12-2024 to -34% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (15) | -64% |
| 12-2025 | (17) | -58% |
| 12-2026 | (29) | -53% |
| 12-2027 | (35) | -48% |
| 12-2028 | (39) | -43% |
| 12-2029 | (42) | -39% |
| 12-2030 | (51) | -38% |
| 12-2031 | (59) | -37% |
| 12-2032 | (66) | -36% |
| 12-2033 | (74) | -35% |
| 12-2034 | (81) | -34% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 3 |
| 12-2026 | 3 |
| 12-2027 | 3 |
| 12-2028 | 3 |
| 12-2029 | 5 |
| 12-2030 | 6 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 32 |
| Days Inventory | 54 |
| Days Payables | 37 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | (9) | (0) | 2 | 2 | (13) |
| 2026 | (22) | (0) | 4 | 0 | (26) |
| 2027 | (27) | (0) | 5 | 2 | (34) |
| 2028 | (30) | (0) | 6 | 2 | (39) |
| 2029 | (30) | (0) | 8 | 1 | (38) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -25082.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -35451.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is 22nd Century Group Inc (XXII) a buy or a sell? 22nd Century Group Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, 22nd Century Group Inc (XXII) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -35451.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.75.