As of May 25, 2025, XpresSpa Group Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.66, this represents a potential upside of -1209.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1346.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1209.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 8.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $56 million in 12-2022 to $72 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 56 | 24% |
| 12-2023 | 56 | 1% |
| 12-2024 | 57 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 60 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 61 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 64 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 65 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 67 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 68 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 70 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 72 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -58% in 12-2022 to -37% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (33) | -58% |
| 12-2023 | (31) | -54% |
| 12-2024 | (29) | -50% |
| 12-2025 | (28) | -47% |
| 12-2026 | (26) | -44% |
| 12-2027 | (26) | -40% |
| 12-2028 | (26) | -40% |
| 12-2029 | (26) | -39% |
| 12-2030 | (26) | -39% |
| 12-2031 | (27) | -38% |
| 12-2032 | (27) | -37% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 5 |
| 12-2024 | 6 |
| 12-2025 | 6 |
| 12-2026 | 5 |
| 12-2027 | 4 |
| 12-2028 | 4 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 7 |
| Days Inventory | 15 |
| Days Payables | 6 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | (25) | (0) | 4 | 0 | (29) |
| 2024 | (23) | (0) | 4 | (0) | (26) |
| 2025 | (22) | (0) | 4 | 0 | (25) |
| 2026 | (21) | (0) | 4 | 0 | (25) |
| 2027 | (22) | (0) | 4 | 0 | (26) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1346.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1209.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is XpresSpa Group Inc (XSPA) a buy or a sell? XpresSpa Group Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, XpresSpa Group Inc (XSPA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1209.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.66.