As of May 24, 2025, Exxon Mobil Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $97.41 to $216.12 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $216.12 | +109.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $207.87 | +101.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $190.16 | +84.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $97.41 | -5.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $159.57 | +54.9% |
Is Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $103.03, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Exxon Mobil Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Cost of equity | 8.1% | 10.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 25.4% | 26.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.6% | 9.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $148 | $661,842M | 74.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $160 | $712,061M | 55.0% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $60,445M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.6% - 7.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $628,021M - $793,393M |
| Net Debt | $20,515M |
| Equity Value | $607,506M - $772,878M |
| Outstanding Shares | 4,325M |
| Fair Value | $140 - $179 |
| Selected Fair Value | $159.57 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $445635M |
| Enterprise Value | $466150M |
| Trailing P/E | 13.40 |
| Forward P/E | 11.10 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.00 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 386.66% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 2.96% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.09 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $64.83 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $51.97 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $38.03 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $14.61 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $15.96 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $185.40 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Exxon Mobil Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $185.40, which is approximately 80.0% above the current market price of $103.03.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Exxon Mobil Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.