As of October 26, 2025, Exxon Mobil Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $92.55 to $160.89 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $158.53 | +37.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $145.59 | +26.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $137.01 | +18.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $92.55 | -19.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $160.89 | +39.4% |
Is Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $115.39, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Exxon Mobil Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 | 0.94 |
| Cost of equity | 8.1% | 10.1% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 25.4% | 26.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.6% | 9.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $146 | $645,310M | 75.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $159 | $700,473M | 55.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $114 | $487,714M | 67.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $133 | $568,257M | 45.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $60,445M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.6% - 7.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $630,613M - $790,482M |
| Net Debt | $24,637M |
| Equity Value | $605,976M - $765,845M |
| Outstanding Shares | 4,263M |
| Fair Value | $142 - $180 |
| Selected Fair Value | $160.89 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $491936M |
| Enterprise Value | $491936M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 12.72 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.40 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 362.36% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 3.02% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.09 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $47.56 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $36.40 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $27.40 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $13.88 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $16.09 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $141.33 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Exxon Mobil Corp's intrinsic value is $141.33, which is approximately 22.5% above the current market price of $115.39.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Exxon Mobil Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.