What is XOG's Intrinsic value?

Extraction Oil & Gas Inc (XOG) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 2, 2025, Extraction Oil & Gas Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.00 to $0.00 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside

Is Extraction Oil & Gas Inc (XOG) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $68.54, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Extraction Oil & Gas Inc's intrinsic value, including:

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 4.2% 5.2%
Adjusted beta 1.06 1.08
Cost of equity 7.6% 9.8%
Cost of debt 4.3% 7.0%
Tax rate 6.9% 18.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.33 0.33
After-tax WACC 6.8% 8.8%

Valuation Methods

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1722M
Enterprise Value $1777M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 1.90
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.33

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Weighted Average 100% $0.00

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Extraction Oil & Gas Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.00, which is approximately 100.0% below the current market price of $68.54.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-227% to -207% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Extraction Oil & Gas Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.