As of May 23, 2025, Auxly Cannabis Group Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.30 per share. With the current market price at $0.09, this represents a potential upside of 254.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.03 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.30 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -60.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 254.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 9.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $122 million in 12-2024 to $447 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 122 | 21% |
| 12-2025 | 156 | 27% |
| 12-2026 | 190 | 22% |
| 12-2027 | 229 | 21% |
| 12-2028 | 264 | 15% |
| 12-2029 | 301 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 335 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 363 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 390 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 418 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 447 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -13% in 12-2024 to 0% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (16) | -13% |
| 12-2025 | (0) | 0% |
| 12-2026 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2027 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2028 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2029 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2030 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2031 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2032 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2033 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2034 | (1) | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $7 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 6 |
| 12-2026 | 11 |
| 12-2027 | 14 |
| 12-2028 | 20 |
| 12-2029 | 27 |
| 12-2030 | 31 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 62 |
| Days Inventory | 146 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26 | (0) | 18 | 19 | (11) |
| 2026 | 35 | (0) | 22 | 10 | 2 |
| 2027 | 44 | (0) | 27 | 21 | (4) |
| 2028 | 54 | (0) | 31 | 17 | 7 |
| 2029 | 65 | (0) | 35 | 16 | 14 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.03 | -60.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.30 | 254.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.33 | 266.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.46 | 416.3% |
Is Auxly Cannabis Group Inc (XLY.TO) a buy or a sell? Auxly Cannabis Group Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Auxly Cannabis Group Inc (XLY.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 254.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.09.