As of December 15, 2025, Xilinx Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $117.14 per share. With the current market price at $194.92, this represents a potential upside of -39.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $97.53 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $117.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -50.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -39.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.3% - 9.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3148 million in 04-2021 to $6872 million by 04-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2021 | 3148 | 0% |
| 04-2022 | 3591 | 14% |
| 04-2023 | 3899 | 9% |
| 04-2024 | 4200 | 8% |
| 04-2025 | 4623 | 10% |
| 04-2026 | 4927 | 7% |
| 04-2027 | 5238 | 6% |
| 04-2028 | 5594 | 7% |
| 04-2029 | 5980 | 7% |
| 04-2030 | 6290 | 5% |
| 04-2031 | 6872 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 21% in 04-2021 to 29% by 04-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2021 | 647 | 21% |
| 04-2022 | 804 | 22% |
| 04-2023 | 926 | 24% |
| 04-2024 | 1051 | 25% |
| 04-2025 | 1214 | 26% |
| 04-2026 | 1351 | 27% |
| 04-2027 | 1448 | 28% |
| 04-2028 | 1559 | 28% |
| 04-2029 | 1679 | 28% |
| 04-2030 | 1780 | 28% |
| 04-2031 | 1959 | 29% |
with a 5-year average of $78 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 04-2022 | 83 |
| 04-2023 | 95 |
| 04-2024 | 100 |
| 04-2025 | 99 |
| 04-2026 | 116 |
| 04-2027 | 125 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 35 |
| Days Inventory | 114 |
| Days Payables | 41 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2022 | 255 | 21 | 25 | 19 | 190 |
| 2023 | 1172 | 98 | 107 | 15 | 952 |
| 2024 | 1320 | 111 | 115 | 40 | 1054 |
| 2025 | 1505 | 129 | 126 | 52 | 1197 |
| 2026 | 1678 | 143 | 135 | 26 | 1374 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 97.53 | -50.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 117.14 | -39.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 95.12 | -51.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 114.12 | -41.5% |
Is Xilinx Inc (XLNX) a buy or a sell? Xilinx Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Xilinx Inc (XLNX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -39.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $194.92.