As of May 22, 2025, XL Fleet Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.14, this represents a potential upside of -58462378.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -459120.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -58462378.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.3% - 11.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $23 million in 12-2022 to $10182789 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 267.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 23 | 49% |
| 12-2023 | 199 | 756% |
| 12-2024 | 893 | 349% |
| 12-2025 | 3995 | 348% |
| 12-2026 | 15167 | 280% |
| 12-2027 | 53378 | 252% |
| 12-2028 | 175397 | 229% |
| 12-2029 | 537335 | 206% |
| 12-2030 | 1532294 | 185% |
| 12-2031 | 4065546 | 165% |
| 12-2032 | 10182789 | 150% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -227% in 12-2022 to -158% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (53) | -227% |
| 12-2023 | (326) | -164% |
| 12-2024 | (1,453) | -163% |
| 12-2025 | (6,445) | -161% |
| 12-2026 | (24,267) | -160% |
| 12-2027 | (84,720) | -159% |
| 12-2028 | (277,958) | -158% |
| 12-2029 | (850,248) | -158% |
| 12-2030 | (2,420,976) | -158% |
| 12-2031 | (6,413,875) | -158% |
| 12-2032 | (16,040,841) | -158% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 3 |
| 12-2024 | 13 |
| 12-2025 | 57 |
| 12-2026 | 225 |
| 12-2027 | 816 |
| 12-2028 | 2758 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 116 |
| Days Inventory | 213 |
| Days Payables | 79 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | (405) | (121) | 11 | 75 | (371) |
| 2024 | (1,804) | (537) | 49 | 456 | (1,771) |
| 2025 | (7,995) | (2,384) | 221 | 1798 | (7,631) |
| 2026 | (30,069) | (8,975) | 841 | 5836 | (27,771) |
| 2027 | (104,864) | (31,335) | 2958 | 21738 | (98,226) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -459120.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -58462378.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is XL Fleet Corp (XL) a buy or a sell? XL Fleet Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, XL Fleet Corp (XL) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -58462378.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.14.