What is WUC.CN's DCF valuation?

Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp (WUC.CN) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.85, this represents a potential upside of -1108.1%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -843.8%
Potential Upside (10-year) -1108.1%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.1% - 9.5%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 0 57%
12-2025 0 5%
12-2026 0 14%
12-2027 0 14%
12-2028 0 17%
12-2029 0 14%
12-2030 0 9%
12-2031 0 11%
12-2032 0 11%
12-2033 1 12%
12-2034 1 8%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -5502% in 12-2024 to -1903% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 (10) -5502%
12-2025 (8) -763%
12-2026 (8) -845%
12-2027 (9) -939%
12-2028 (11) -1069%
12-2029 (12) -1185%
12-2030 (13) -1289%
12-2031 (14) -1423%
12-2032 (16) -1574%
12-2033 (18) -1763%
12-2034 (19) -1903%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 489% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 2
12-2026 2
12-2027 2
12-2028 2
12-2029 1
12-2030 1

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 0
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 45

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2025 (9) (3) 1 (0) (7)
2026 (10) (3) 1 (0) (8)
2027 (11) (3) 1 0 (9)
2028 (13) (4) 1 (0) (11)
2029 (15) (4) 2 (0) (13)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.1% - 9.5%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 4.8%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -843.8%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1108.1%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(274)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(370)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp (WUC.CN) a buy or a sell? Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp (WUC.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1108.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -5502% to -1903%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.85.