As of May 28, 2025, Walmart Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $155.87 per share. With the current market price at $97.58, this represents a potential upside of 59.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $119.25 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $155.87 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 22.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 59.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $680985 million in 01-2025 to $1163575 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 680985 | 5% |
| 01-2026 | 698277 | 3% |
| 01-2027 | 738563 | 6% |
| 01-2028 | 781369 | 6% |
| 01-2029 | 796996 | 2% |
| 01-2030 | 849900 | 7% |
| 01-2031 | 923710 | 9% |
| 01-2032 | 967256 | 5% |
| 01-2033 | 1031139 | 7% |
| 01-2034 | 1092815 | 6% |
| 01-2035 | 1163575 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 01-2025 to 8% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 20157 | 3% |
| 01-2026 | 27905 | 4% |
| 01-2027 | 37616 | 5% |
| 01-2028 | 48195 | 6% |
| 01-2029 | 57555 | 7% |
| 01-2030 | 70150 | 8% |
| 01-2031 | 76242 | 8% |
| 01-2032 | 79836 | 8% |
| 01-2033 | 85109 | 8% |
| 01-2034 | 90200 | 8% |
| 01-2035 | 96040 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $16923 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 18656 |
| 01-2027 | 20039 |
| 01-2028 | 20903 |
| 01-2029 | 21103 |
| 01-2030 | 20954 |
| 01-2031 | 22176 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 5 |
| Days Inventory | 42 |
| Days Payables | 42 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2026 | 43822 | 7175 | 14196 | 1105 | 21346 |
| 2027 | 72986 | 12896 | 20020 | (489) | 40558 |
| 2028 | 88198 | 16523 | 21180 | 816 | 49678 |
| 2029 | 101018 | 19732 | 21604 | 388 | 59294 |
| 2030 | 117956 | 24050 | 23038 | 472 | 70395 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 119.25 | 22.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 155.87 | 59.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 112.75 | 15.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 147.38 | 51.0% |
Is Walmart Inc (WMT) a buy or a sell? Walmart Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Walmart Inc (WMT) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 59.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $97.58.