As of May 23, 2025, William Hill PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $185.65 per share. With the current market price at $271.80, this represents a potential upside of -31.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $185.48 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $185.65 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -31.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -31.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 10.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1324 million in 12-2020 to $1967 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 1324 | 16% |
| 12-2021 | 1391 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 1461 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 1490 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 1553 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 1661 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 1714 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 1748 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1783 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1883 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 1967 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2020 to 4% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 51 | 4% |
| 12-2021 | 52 | 4% |
| 12-2022 | 55 | 4% |
| 12-2023 | 56 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 58 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 62 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 64 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 65 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 67 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 70 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 74 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $96 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 95 |
| 12-2022 | 97 |
| 12-2023 | 92 |
| 12-2024 | 92 |
| 12-2025 | 94 |
| 12-2026 | 98 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 2 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 138 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 200 | 1 | 87 | 37 | 75 |
| 2022 | 207 | 2 | 91 | (17) | 131 |
| 2023 | 204 | 2 | 93 | (11) | 121 |
| 2024 | 209 | 2 | 97 | 3 | 108 |
| 2025 | 220 | 2 | 104 | (14) | 128 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 185.48 | -31.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 185.65 | -31.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 108.48 | -60.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 126.60 | -53.4% |
Is William Hill PLC (WMH.L) a buy or a sell? William Hill PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, William Hill PLC (WMH.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -31.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $271.80.