As of April 2, 2026, Waste Management Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $321.24 per share. With the current market price at $231.00, this represents a potential upside of 39.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $236.55 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $321.24 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 2.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 39.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 7.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $25204 million in 12-2025 to $51653 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 25204 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 26438 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 28945 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 30335 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 33544 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 36104 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 39487 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 43379 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 45396 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 47236 | 4% |
| 12-2035 | 51653 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 11% in 12-2025 to 15% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2709 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 3023 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 3572 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 4012 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 4727 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 5394 | 15% |
| 12-2031 | 5900 | 15% |
| 12-2032 | 6481 | 15% |
| 12-2033 | 6783 | 15% |
| 12-2034 | 7058 | 15% |
| 12-2035 | 7718 | 15% |
with a 5-year average of $2769 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 13% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 3079 |
| 12-2027 | 3319 |
| 12-2028 | 3533 |
| 12-2029 | 3764 |
| 12-2030 | 4063 |
| 12-2031 | 4404 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 50 |
| Days Inventory | 5 |
| Days Payables | 50 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7934 | 885 | 3457 | (46) | 3638 |
| 2027 | 8972 | 1046 | 3784 | 288 | 3854 |
| 2028 | 9805 | 1175 | 3966 | 145 | 4519 |
| 2029 | 11075 | 1384 | 4386 | 242 | 5064 |
| 2030 | 12329 | 1579 | 4720 | 256 | 5773 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 236.55 | 2.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 321.24 | 39.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 282.12 | 22.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 359.71 | 55.7% |
Is Waste Management Inc (WM) a buy or a sell? Waste Management Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Waste Management Inc (WM) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 39.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $231.00.