As of June 17, 2025, Whiting Petroleum Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $77.72 to $249.87 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $249.87 | +267.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $233.73 | +243.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $77.72 | +14.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $116.56 | +71.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $215.43 | +216.7% |
Is Whiting Petroleum Corp (WLL) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $68.03, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Whiting Petroleum Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Cost of equity | 6.9% | 9.3% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 1.2% | 14.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.9% | 9.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $234 | $8,955M | 69.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $250 | $9,570M | 49.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $143 | $5,440M | 49.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $181 | $6,912M | 29.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $655M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.3% - 6.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $7,072M - $9,443M |
| Net Debt | $50M |
| Equity Value | $7,022M - $9,393M |
| Outstanding Shares | 38M |
| Fair Value | $184 - $247 |
| Selected Fair Value | $215.43 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2592M |
| Enterprise Value | $2592M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 8.44 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 37.85% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $74.96 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $58.43 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $15.54 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $17.48 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $21.54 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $187.96 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Whiting Petroleum Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $187.96, which is approximately 176.3% above the current market price of $68.03.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Whiting Petroleum Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.