As of September 28, 2025, Wix.Com Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $144.91 per share. With the current market price at $177.42, this represents a potential upside of -18.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $101.64 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $144.91 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -42.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -18.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1761 million in 12-2024 to $4167 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1761 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 1983 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 2231 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 2365 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 2593 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 2781 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 2931 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 3178 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 3529 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 3840 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 4167 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 8% in 12-2024 to 15% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 138 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 183 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 236 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 281 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 341 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 398 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 426 | 15% |
| 12-2031 | 469 | 15% |
| 12-2032 | 529 | 15% |
| 12-2033 | 583 | 15% |
| 12-2034 | 642 | 15% |
with a 5-year average of $43 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 51 |
| 12-2026 | 57 |
| 12-2027 | 57 |
| 12-2028 | 60 |
| 12-2029 | 73 |
| 12-2030 | 79 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 11 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 41 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 98 | 10 | 30 | (3) | 60 |
| 2026 | 254 | 26 | 68 | 18 | 141 |
| 2027 | 300 | 31 | 72 | (4) | 201 |
| 2028 | 362 | 37 | 79 | 4 | 241 |
| 2029 | 433 | 44 | 85 | 7 | 297 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 101.64 | -42.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 144.91 | -18.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 66.47 | -62.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 97.71 | -44.9% |
Is Wix.Com Ltd (WIX) a buy or a sell? Wix.Com Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Wix.Com Ltd (WIX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -18.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $177.42.