As of April 4, 2026, Wincanton PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $323.29 to $8907.62 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $374.41 | -38.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $385.75 | -36.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $347.81 | -42.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $323.29 | -46.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $8907.62 | +1372.3% |
Is Wincanton PLC (WIN.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $605.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Wincanton PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.7% | 4.2% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| Cost of equity | 6.9% | 9.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.5% | 8.7% |
| Tax rate | 12.4% | 12.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.3% | 9.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $386 | $675M | 80.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $374 | $661M | 59.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $139 | $370M | 64.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $204 | $450M | 41.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $842M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.3% - 6.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $9,063M - $13,374M |
| Net Debt | $198M |
| Equity Value | $8,865M - $13,176M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $7,165 - $10,650 |
| Selected Fair Value | $8907.62 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $749M |
| Enterprise Value | $947M |
| Trailing P/E | 28.90 |
| Forward P/E | 23.33 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 216.43% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 4.77% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.28 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $112.32 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $96.44 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $69.56 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $48.49 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $890.76 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $1217.58 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Wincanton PLC's intrinsic value is $1217.58, which is approximately 101.3% above the current market price of $605.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Wincanton PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.