As of May 27, 2025, Warehouse REIT PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $83.15 per share. With the current market price at $98.60, this represents a potential upside of -15.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $50.48 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $83.15 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -48.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -15.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 10.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $51 million in 03-2024 to $107 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 51 | 0% |
| 03-2025 | 55 | 8% |
| 03-2026 | 57 | 3% |
| 03-2027 | 59 | 4% |
| 03-2028 | 70 | 19% |
| 03-2029 | 77 | 10% |
| 03-2030 | 84 | 8% |
| 03-2031 | 91 | 8% |
| 03-2032 | 96 | 6% |
| 03-2033 | 102 | 6% |
| 03-2034 | 107 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 67% in 03-2024 to 56% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 34 | 67% |
| 03-2025 | 30 | 55% |
| 03-2026 | 31 | 55% |
| 03-2027 | 33 | 55% |
| 03-2028 | 39 | 55% |
| 03-2029 | 43 | 56% |
| 03-2030 | 47 | 56% |
| 03-2031 | 51 | 56% |
| 03-2032 | 53 | 56% |
| 03-2033 | 57 | 56% |
| 03-2034 | 60 | 56% |
with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 5 |
| 03-2026 | 6 |
| 03-2027 | 5 |
| 03-2028 | 6 |
| 03-2029 | 6 |
| 03-2030 | 7 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 33 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 2026 | 42 | 7 | 5 | (0) | 29 |
| 2027 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 29 |
| 2028 | 51 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 34 |
| 2029 | 56 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 38 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 50.48 | -48.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 83.15 | -15.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 125.83 | 27.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 157.37 | 59.6% |
Is Warehouse REIT PLC (WHR.L) a buy or a sell? Warehouse REIT PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Warehouse REIT PLC (WHR.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -15.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $98.60.