What is WGO's Intrinsic value?

Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Winnebago Industries Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $30.01 to $196.22 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $196.22 +400.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $180.83 +360.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $127.13 +224.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $30.01 -23.5%
Earnings Power Value $57.43 +46.4%

Is Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $39.24, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Winnebago Industries Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.49 0.75
Cost of equity 6.1% 9.1%
Cost of debt 4.5% 9.1%
Tax rate 23.0% 23.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.5 0.5
After-tax WACC 5.2% 8.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $2,798 (FY08-2025) to $3,528 (FY08-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 1% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $181 $5,468M 87.1%
10-Year Growth $196 $5,902M 74.3%
5-Year EBITDA $75 $2,487M 71.6%
10-Year EBITDA $99 $3,155M 51.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 151.4%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.6%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $127.13 (224.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.1% (Low) to 6.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $10 to $50
  • Selected fair value: $30.01 (-23.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $128M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.4% - 5.2%
Enterprise Value $1,530M - $2,443M
Net Debt $366M
Equity Value $1,164M - $2,077M
Outstanding Shares 28M
Fair Value $41 - $74
Selected Fair Value $57.43

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1107M
Enterprise Value $1473M
Trailing P/E 43.07
Forward P/E 17.37
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.65
Current Dividend Yield 351.41%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 24.54%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.50

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $58.87
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $45.21
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $25.43
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $4.50
Earnings Power Value 10% $5.74
Weighted Average 100% $139.74

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Winnebago Industries Inc's intrinsic value is $139.74, which is approximately 256.1% above the current market price of $39.24.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (1% to 7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 24.54%

Given these factors, we believe Winnebago Industries Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.