What is WEC's DCF valuation?

WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 4, 2026, WEC Energy Group Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $154.55 per share. With the current market price at $117.58, this represents a potential upside of 31.4%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $116.32
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $154.55
Potential Upside (5-year) -1.1%
Potential Upside (10-year) 31.4%
Discount Rate (WACC) 4.8% - 6.4%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $9507 million in 12-2025 to $19279 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.3%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 9507 13%
12-2026 9992 5%
12-2027 11566 16%
12-2028 12067 4%
12-2029 13134 9%
12-2030 14136 8%
12-2031 15352 9%
12-2032 16119 5%
12-2033 17256 7%
12-2034 18361 6%
12-2035 19279 5%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 16% in 12-2025 to 15% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 1556 16%
12-2026 1525 15%
12-2027 1765 15%
12-2028 1841 15%
12-2029 2004 15%
12-2030 2157 15%
12-2031 2343 15%
12-2032 2460 15%
12-2033 2633 15%
12-2034 2802 15%
12-2035 2942 15%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $2920 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 33% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 3125
12-2027 3417
12-2028 3662
12-2029 3948
12-2030 3996
12-2031 4348

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 72
Days Inventory 97
Days Payables 129

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 5594 234 3278 (66) 2147
2027 6275 271 3795 287 1922
2028 6644 283 3959 129 2273
2029 7194 308 4309 142 2434
2030 7489 331 4638 182 2338

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 4.8% - 6.4%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 1.0% - 3.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 6.9x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 116.32 -1.1%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 154.55 31.4%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 75.96 -35.4%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 112.82 -4.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $60,152M
  • 10-Year Model: $72,596M

Investment Conclusion

Is WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC) a buy or a sell? WEC Energy Group Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 31.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (7.3% CAGR)

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $117.58.