As of May 31, 2025, Vertu Motors PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $146.28 per share. With the current market price at $65.00, this represents a potential upside of 125.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $121.26 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $146.28 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 86.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 125.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 10.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4720 million in 02-2024 to $8723 million by 02-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2024 | 4720 | 18% |
| 02-2025 | 5101 | 8% |
| 02-2026 | 5405 | 6% |
| 02-2027 | 5594 | 4% |
| 02-2028 | 5706 | 2% |
| 02-2029 | 6247 | 9% |
| 02-2030 | 6629 | 6% |
| 02-2031 | 6894 | 4% |
| 02-2032 | 7409 | 7% |
| 02-2033 | 8110 | 9% |
| 02-2034 | 8723 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 02-2024 to 1% by 02-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2024 | 26 | 1% |
| 02-2025 | 28 | 1% |
| 02-2026 | 29 | 1% |
| 02-2027 | 30 | 1% |
| 02-2028 | 31 | 1% |
| 02-2029 | 34 | 1% |
| 02-2030 | 36 | 1% |
| 02-2031 | 38 | 1% |
| 02-2032 | 40 | 1% |
| 02-2033 | 44 | 1% |
| 02-2034 | 48 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $19 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 21 |
| 02-2026 | 24 |
| 02-2027 | 27 |
| 02-2028 | 29 |
| 02-2029 | 30 |
| 02-2030 | 31 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 5 |
| Days Inventory | 63 |
| Days Payables | 59 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 41 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 6 |
| 2026 | 89 | 10 | 29 | 3 | 47 |
| 2027 | 93 | 10 | 30 | (2) | 55 |
| 2028 | 97 | 11 | 30 | 9 | 47 |
| 2029 | 104 | 12 | 33 | 11 | 48 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 121.26 | 86.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 146.28 | 125.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 79.87 | 22.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 121.27 | 86.6% |
Is Vertu Motors PLC (VTU.L) a buy or a sell? Vertu Motors PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Vertu Motors PLC (VTU.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 125.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $65.00.