As of December 15, 2025, Vireo Health International Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.37 per share. With the current market price at $0.67, this represents a potential upside of -44.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.21 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.37 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -68.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -44.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 10.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $99 million in 12-2024 to $252 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 99 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 105 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 116 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 129 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 144 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 161 | 12% |
| 12-2030 | 178 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 194 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 212 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 233 | 10% |
| 12-2034 | 252 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -28% in 12-2024 to -12% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (28) | -28% |
| 12-2025 | (13) | -12% |
| 12-2026 | (14) | -12% |
| 12-2027 | (16) | -12% |
| 12-2028 | (18) | -12% |
| 12-2029 | (20) | -12% |
| 12-2030 | (22) | -12% |
| 12-2031 | (24) | -12% |
| 12-2032 | (26) | -12% |
| 12-2033 | (29) | -12% |
| 12-2034 | (32) | -12% |
with a 5-year average of $10 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 15% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 11 |
| 12-2026 | 11 |
| 12-2027 | 14 |
| 12-2028 | 17 |
| 12-2029 | 20 |
| 12-2030 | 22 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 17 |
| Days Inventory | 165 |
| Days Payables | 16 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 13 | (2) | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 2026 | 28 | (5) | 18 | 2 | 14 |
| 2027 | 33 | (6) | 20 | 4 | 15 |
| 2028 | 38 | (6) | 22 | 4 | 19 |
| 2029 | 43 | (7) | 25 | 4 | 22 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.21 | -68.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.37 | -44.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.19 | 78.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.45 | 116.0% |
Is Vireo Health International Inc (VREO.CN) a buy or a sell? Vireo Health International Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Vireo Health International Inc (VREO.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -44.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.67.