What is VOG.L's Intrinsic value?

Victoria Oil & Gas PLC (VOG.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Victoria Oil & Gas PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.00 to $0.00 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside

Is Victoria Oil & Gas PLC (VOG.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $3.85, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Victoria Oil & Gas PLC's intrinsic value, including:

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.32 0.7
Cost of equity 5.9% 9.9%
Cost of debt 8.8% 24.0%
Tax rate 2.4% 3.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.09 1.09
After-tax WACC 7.3% 16.9%

Valuation Methods

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $10M
Enterprise Value $19M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 2.90
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.09

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Weighted Average 100% $0.00

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Victoria Oil & Gas PLC's intrinsic value is $0.00, which is approximately 100.0% below the current market price of $3.85.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-68% to -60% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Victoria Oil & Gas PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.