As of May 27, 2025, Victoria Oil & Gas PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.85, this represents a potential upside of -507.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -498.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -507.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 16.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $13 million in 12-2020 to $10 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -2.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 13 | 37% |
| 12-2021 | 7 | -43% |
| 12-2022 | 8 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 8 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 8 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 8 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 9 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 9 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 9 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 9 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 10 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -68% in 12-2020 to -60% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (9) | -68% |
| 12-2021 | (5) | -64% |
| 12-2022 | (5) | -63% |
| 12-2023 | (5) | -62% |
| 12-2024 | (5) | -62% |
| 12-2025 | (5) | -61% |
| 12-2026 | (5) | -61% |
| 12-2027 | (5) | -60% |
| 12-2028 | (6) | -60% |
| 12-2029 | (6) | -60% |
| 12-2030 | (6) | -60% |
with a 5-year average of $16 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 71% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 12 |
| 12-2022 | 5 |
| 12-2023 | 6 |
| 12-2024 | 5 |
| 12-2025 | 6 |
| 12-2026 | 6 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 129 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 274 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 4 | (0) | 3 | (1) | 2 |
| 2022 | 1 | (0) | 5 | 0 | (4) |
| 2023 | 2 | (0) | 6 | 0 | (4) |
| 2024 | 1 | (0) | 6 | 0 | (4) |
| 2025 | 1 | (0) | 6 | 0 | (4) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -498.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -507.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Victoria Oil & Gas PLC (VOG.L) a buy or a sell? Victoria Oil & Gas PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Victoria Oil & Gas PLC (VOG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -507.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.85.