As of May 27, 2025, Velodyne Lidar Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.26, this represents a potential upside of -19928.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -10235.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -19928.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $62 million in 12-2021 to $1597 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 38.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 62 | 35% |
| 12-2022 | 171 | 177% |
| 12-2023 | 275 | 60% |
| 12-2024 | 384 | 40% |
| 12-2025 | 504 | 31% |
| 12-2026 | 632 | 25% |
| 12-2027 | 792 | 25% |
| 12-2028 | 963 | 22% |
| 12-2029 | 1155 | 20% |
| 12-2030 | 1367 | 18% |
| 12-2031 | 1597 | 17% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -343% in 12-2021 to -307% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (212) | -343% |
| 12-2022 | (565) | -330% |
| 12-2023 | (893) | -325% |
| 12-2024 | (1,227) | -320% |
| 12-2025 | (1,591) | -315% |
| 12-2026 | (1,965) | -311% |
| 12-2027 | (2,458) | -310% |
| 12-2028 | (2,979) | -309% |
| 12-2029 | (3,563) | -309% |
| 12-2030 | (4,209) | -308% |
| 12-2031 | (4,901) | -307% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 6 |
| 12-2023 | 8 |
| 12-2024 | 11 |
| 12-2025 | 16 |
| 12-2026 | 22 |
| 12-2027 | 29 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 60 |
| Days Inventory | 74 |
| Days Payables | 34 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2022 | (143) | (3) | 2 | 8 | (150) |
| 2023 | (904) | (17) | 15 | 31 | (933) |
| 2024 | (1,242) | (23) | 22 | 24 | (1,264) |
| 2025 | (1,607) | (30) | 28 | 32 | (1,637) |
| 2026 | (1,984) | (37) | 36 | 32 | (2,014) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -10235.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -19928.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Velodyne Lidar Inc (VLDR) a buy or a sell? Velodyne Lidar Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Velodyne Lidar Inc (VLDR) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -19928.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.26.