As of May 28, 2025, Vifor Pharma AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $79.66 to $322.72 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $219.34 | +32.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $153.04 | -7.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $224.85 | +35.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $322.72 | +94.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $79.66 | -52.1% |
Is Vifor Pharma AG (VIFN.SW) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $166.15, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Vifor Pharma AG's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| Cost of equity | 4.3% | 6.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 9.9% | 10.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.3% | 6.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $153 | $9,541M | 89.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $219 | $13,843M | 83.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $123 | $7,614M | 87.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $153 | $9,521M | 75.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $245M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 4.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $3,845M - $5,713M |
| Net Debt | $(390)M |
| Equity Value | $4,235M - $6,103M |
| Outstanding Shares | 65M |
| Fair Value | $65 - $94 |
| Selected Fair Value | $79.66 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $10782M |
| Enterprise Value | $10392M |
| Trailing P/E | 74.67 |
| Forward P/E | 33.16 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 11.15 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 120.39% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -0.02% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.05 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $65.80 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $38.26 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $44.97 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $48.41 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $7.97 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $205.41 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Vifor Pharma AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $205.41, which is approximately 23.6% above the current market price of $166.15.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Vifor Pharma AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.