As of December 15, 2025, Vifor Pharma AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $73.20 to $185.26 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $180.99 | +8.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $127.41 | -23.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $185.26 | +11.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $140.15 | -15.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $73.20 | -55.9% |
Is Vifor Pharma AG (VIFN.SW) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $166.15, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Vifor Pharma AG's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Cost of equity | 4.8% | 7.1% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 9.9% | 10.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.7% | 6.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $127 | $7,878M | 87.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $181 | $11,355M | 79.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $106 | $6,489M | 85.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $131 | $8,122M | 71.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $245M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 4.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $3,550M - $5,170M |
| Net Debt | $(390)M |
| Equity Value | $3,940M - $5,560M |
| Outstanding Shares | 65M |
| Fair Value | $61 - $86 |
| Selected Fair Value | $73.20 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $10782M |
| Enterprise Value | $10392M |
| Trailing P/E | 74.67 |
| Forward P/E | 33.16 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 120.39% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -0.02% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.05 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $54.30 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $31.85 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $37.05 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $21.02 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $7.32 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $151.54 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Vifor Pharma AG's intrinsic value is $151.54, which is approximately 8.8% below the current market price of $166.15.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Vifor Pharma AG is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.