What is VIAC's Intrinsic value?

ViacomCBS Inc (VIAC) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 19, 2025, ViacomCBS Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $37.11 to $66.05 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $63.63 +115.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $54.82 +85.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $37.11 +25.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $41.59 +40.6%
Earnings Power Value $66.05 +123.3%

Is ViacomCBS Inc (VIAC) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $29.58, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate ViacomCBS Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 4.2% 5.2%
Adjusted beta 1.04 1.17
Cost of equity 7.6% 10.3%
Cost of debt 4.5% 7.8%
Tax rate 16.8% 17.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.85 0.85
After-tax WACC 5.8% 8.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.2% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $25,285 (FY12-2020) to $35,942 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 10% to 10%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $55 $56,071M 75.8%
10-Year Growth $64 $63,008M 56.8%
5-Year EBITDA $22 $29,991M 54.8%
10-Year EBITDA $35 $40,546M 32.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 19.5%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $37.11 (25.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.3% (Low) to 7.6% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $28 to $56
  • Selected fair value: $41.59 (40.6% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $4,488M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.5% - 5.8%
Enterprise Value $52,681M - $77,149M
Net Debt $12,888M
Equity Value $39,793M - $64,261M
Outstanding Shares 788M
Fair Value $51 - $82
Selected Fair Value $66.05

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $23300M
Enterprise Value $36188M
Trailing P/E 7.07
Forward P/E 8.11
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.25
Current Dividend Yield 267.38%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 20.14%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.85

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $19.09
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $13.71
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $7.42
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $6.24
Earnings Power Value 10% $6.60
Weighted Average 100% $53.06

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, ViacomCBS Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $53.06, which is approximately 79.4% above the current market price of $29.58.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (10% to 10% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 20.14%

Given these factors, we believe ViacomCBS Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.