What is VATN.SW's Intrinsic value?

Valiant Holding AG (VATN.SW) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 13, 2025, Valiant Holding AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $142.22 to $159.26 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $142.22 +20.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $159.26 +34.5%

Is Valiant Holding AG (VATN.SW) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $118.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Valiant Holding AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 1.1% 1.6%
Equity market risk premium 4.7% 5.7%
Adjusted beta 0.58 0.96
Cost of equity 3.9% 7.7%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 17.4% 18.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 5.71 5.71
After-tax WACC 4.1% 4.6%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 5.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $142.22 (20.1% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.7% (Low) to 3.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $72 to $247
  • Selected fair value: $159.26 (34.5% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1870M
Enterprise Value $1870M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 14.37
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 62.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 4.35%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 5.71

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $28.44
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $23.89
Weighted Average 100% $149.52

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Valiant Holding AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $149.52, which is approximately 26.3% above the current market price of $118.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Historical dividend growth of 4.35%

Given these factors, we believe Valiant Holding AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.