As of June 17, 2025, Vanet Gida Sanayi Ic ve Dis Ticaret AS has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $1.64 per share. With the current market price at $4.35, this represents a potential upside of -62.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $1.03 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $1.64 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -76.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -62.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 16.3% - 19.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $9 million in 12-2020 to $37 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 9 | 38% |
| 12-2021 | 11 | 25% |
| 12-2022 | 13 | 23% |
| 12-2023 | 16 | 18% |
| 12-2024 | 18 | 17% |
| 12-2025 | 21 | 15% |
| 12-2026 | 24 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 27 | 15% |
| 12-2028 | 31 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 34 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 37 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 75% in 12-2020 to 99% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 6 | 75% |
| 12-2021 | 9 | 80% |
| 12-2022 | 11 | 84% |
| 12-2023 | 14 | 88% |
| 12-2024 | 17 | 92% |
| 12-2025 | 20 | 95% |
| 12-2026 | 23 | 96% |
| 12-2027 | 27 | 97% |
| 12-2028 | 30 | 97% |
| 12-2029 | 33 | 98% |
| 12-2030 | 36 | 99% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 0 |
| 12-2022 | 0 |
| 12-2023 | 0 |
| 12-2024 | 1 |
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 44 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 14 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2021 | 2 | 1 | 0 | (1) | 2 |
| 2022 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2023 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2024 | 7 | 2 | 1 | (0) | 4 |
| 2025 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 1.03 | -76.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 1.64 | -62.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.10 | -51.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.60 | -40.2% |
Is Vanet Gida Sanayi Ic ve Dis Ticaret AS (VANGD.IS) a buy or a sell? Vanet Gida Sanayi Ic ve Dis Ticaret AS is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Vanet Gida Sanayi Ic ve Dis Ticaret AS (VANGD.IS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -62.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $4.35.