What is VALU's Intrinsic value?

Value Line Inc (VALU) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 18, 2025, Value Line Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $6.86 to $29.34 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $7.09 -81.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $6.86 -81.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $22.19 -40.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $29.34 -21.3%
Earnings Power Value $14.89 -60.1%

Is Value Line Inc (VALU) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $37.27, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Value Line Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.88 1.03
Cost of equity 7.9% 10.6%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 23.7% 24.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.9% 7.2%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $37 (FY04-2024) to $45 (FY04-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 51% to 51%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $7 $64M 82.5%
10-Year Growth $7 $66M 66.3%
5-Year EBITDA $11 $105M 89.4%
10-Year EBITDA $11 $101M 78.0%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 51.7%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $22.19 (-40.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.6% (Low) to 7.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $17 to $42
  • Selected fair value: $29.34 (-21.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $9M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.2% - 5.9%
Enterprise Value $125M - $154M
Net Debt $(1)M
Equity Value $126M - $155M
Outstanding Shares 9M
Fair Value $13 - $16
Selected Fair Value $14.89

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $351M
Enterprise Value $350M
Trailing P/E 16.30
Forward P/E 19.64
Trailing EV/EBITDA 13.35
Current Dividend Yield 314.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 8.15%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.15

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $2.13
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $1.72
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $4.44
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $4.40
Earnings Power Value 10% $1.49
Weighted Average 100% $14.17

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Value Line Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $14.17, which is approximately 62.0% below the current market price of $37.27.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (51% to 51% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 8.15%

Given these factors, we believe Value Line Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.