As of May 23, 2025, US Foods Holding Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $438.24 per share. With the current market price at $75.89, this represents a potential upside of 477.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $334.45 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $438.24 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 340.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 477.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.2% - 7.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $37877 million in 12-2024 to $66228 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 37877 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 39578 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 41320 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 43929 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 48041 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 51913 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 53259 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 55790 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 58185 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 62654 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 66228 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 12-2024 to 7% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 494 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 1018 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 1576 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 2211 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 2991 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 3839 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 3939 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 4126 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 4303 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 4634 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 4898 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $276 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 306 |
| 12-2026 | 322 |
| 12-2027 | 345 |
| 12-2028 | 366 |
| 12-2029 | 387 |
| 12-2030 | 410 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 19 |
| Days Inventory | 20 |
| Days Payables | 25 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 1472 | 233 | 255 | 160 | 824 |
| 2026 | 2722 | 481 | 355 | 34 | 1853 |
| 2027 | 3595 | 674 | 378 | 98 | 2444 |
| 2028 | 4668 | 912 | 413 | 204 | 3138 |
| 2029 | 5829 | 1171 | 447 | 155 | 4056 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 334.45 | 340.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 438.24 | 477.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 133.32 | 75.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 208.50 | 174.7% |
Is US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) a buy or a sell? US Foods Holding Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 477.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $75.89.