As of June 19, 2025, UP Global Sourcing Holdings PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $132.52 to $301.80 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $301.80 | +104.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $172.76 | +17.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $232.20 | +57.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $195.51 | +32.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $132.52 | -10.2% |
Is UP Global Sourcing Holdings PLC (UPGS.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $147.50, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate UP Global Sourcing Holdings PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.4% | 7.4% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.44 | 0.6 |
| Cost of equity | 7.2% | 9.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.4% | 5.2% |
| Tax rate | 21.0% | 21.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.4% | 8.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $173 | $177M | 76.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $302 | $293M | 67.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $142 | $149M | 72.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $209 | $210M | 54.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $10M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.6% - 6.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $120M - $161M |
| Net Debt | $22M |
| Equity Value | $98M - $139M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $110 - $155 |
| Selected Fair Value | $132.52 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $132M |
| Enterprise Value | $154M |
| Trailing P/E | 11.00 |
| Forward P/E | 10.05 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 524.50% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 7.97% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.28 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $90.54 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $43.19 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $46.44 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $29.33 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $13.25 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $222.75 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, UP Global Sourcing Holdings PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $222.75, which is approximately 51.0% above the current market price of $147.50.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe UP Global Sourcing Holdings PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.