As of June 10, 2025, United Natural Foods Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $378.96 to $685.70 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $670.80 | +2486.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $479.69 | +1749.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $378.96 | +1360.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $685.70 | +2543.4% |
Is United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $25.94, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate United Natural Foods Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.42 | 0.96 |
| Cost of equity | 5.8% | 10.3% |
| Cost of debt | 6.4% | 12.4% |
| Tax rate | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.5% | 10.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $480 | $31,077M | 81.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $671 | $42,643M | 65.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $314 | $21,041M | 72.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $481 | $31,180M | 52.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $3,089M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.1% - 5.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $30,503M - $56,586M |
| Net Debt | $2,046M |
| Equity Value | $28,457M - $54,540M |
| Outstanding Shares | 61M |
| Fair Value | $470 - $901 |
| Selected Fair Value | $685.70 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1570M |
| Enterprise Value | $3616M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 4.63 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.40 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.25 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $201.24 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $119.92 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $75.79 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $68.57 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $547.68 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, United Natural Foods Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $547.68, which is approximately 2011.3% above the current market price of $25.94.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe United Natural Foods Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.