What is ULVR.L's DCF valuation?

Unilever PLC (ULVR.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of October 11, 2025, Unilever PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of 39.0%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) 22.3%
Potential Upside (10-year) 39.0%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.6% - 8.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $60761 million in 12-2024 to $83194 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.2%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 60761 2%
12-2025 58828 -3%
12-2026 60004 2%
12-2027 61205 2%
12-2028 65257 7%
12-2029 66984 3%
12-2030 72001 7%
12-2031 76119 6%
12-2032 77641 2%
12-2033 79557 2%
12-2034 83194 5%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 12-2024 to 15% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 6369 10%
12-2025 7059 12%
12-2026 7695 13%
12-2027 8342 14%
12-2028 9411 14%
12-2029 10179 15%
12-2030 10942 15%
12-2031 11567 15%
12-2032 11799 15%
12-2033 12090 15%
12-2034 12642 15%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $1557 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 1673
12-2026 1731
12-2027 1721
12-2028 1727
12-2029 1697
12-2030 1768

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 26
Days Inventory 57
Days Payables 112

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2025 5650 1087 799 146 3618
2026 12197 2370 1630 (67) 8264
2027 13043 2569 1663 131 8680
2028 14473 2898 1773 90 9712
2029 15460 3135 1820 60 10445

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.6% - 8.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 2.0% - 4.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 10.3x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 22.3%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 39.0%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 3977.28 +Inf%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 4836.26 +Inf%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $181,807M
  • 10-Year Model: $202,966M

Investment Conclusion

Is Unilever PLC (ULVR.L) a buy or a sell? Unilever PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Unilever PLC (ULVR.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 39.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from 10% to 15%)
  • Steady revenue growth (3.2% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.