What is UIS's Intrinsic value?

Unisys Corp (UIS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Unisys Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3.66 to $26.38 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $26.38 +800.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $15.43 +426.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $3.66 +25.0%
Earnings Power Value $20.73 +607.6%

Is Unisys Corp (UIS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2.93, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Unisys Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.27 1.46
Cost of equity 9.7% 13.1%
Cost of debt 6.8% 7.0%
Tax rate 20.3% 40.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 2.36 2.36
After-tax WACC 6.7% 6.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $2,008 (FY12-2024) to $2,745 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -10% to 2%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 5% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $15 $1,514M 90.6%
10-Year Growth $26 $2,294M 80.1%
5-Year EBITDA $32 $2,693M 94.7%
10-Year EBITDA $36 $3,004M 84.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.4%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $3.66 (25.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 13.1% (Low) to 9.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(31) to $(80)
  • Selected fair value: $-55.24 (-1985.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $128M
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.8% - 6.7%
Enterprise Value $1,876M - $1,907M
Net Debt $413M
Equity Value $1,463M - $1,494M
Outstanding Shares 71M
Fair Value $21 - $21
Selected Fair Value $20.73

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $209M
Enterprise Value $622M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 17.80
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 2.36

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $7.91
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $3.86
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $0.73
Earnings Power Value 12% $2.07
Weighted Average 100% $17.15

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Unisys Corp's intrinsic value is $17.15, which is approximately 485.3% above the current market price of $2.93.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-10% to 2% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Unisys Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.