As of May 24, 2025, Ufp Industries Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $79.44 to $236.38 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $236.38 | +145.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $198.82 | +106.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $168.27 | +74.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $79.44 | -17.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $109.18 | +13.3% |
Is Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $96.35, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ufp Industries Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.72 | 0.85 |
| Cost of equity | 7.2% | 9.6% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 23.7% | 24.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.0% | 9.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $199 | $11,423M | 76.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $236 | $13,707M | 59.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $177 | $10,104M | 73.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $214 | $12,321M | 54.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $481M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.4% - 7.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $5,112M - $6,829M |
| Net Debt | $(670)M |
| Equity Value | $5,781M - $7,499M |
| Outstanding Shares | 61M |
| Fair Value | $95 - $123 |
| Selected Fair Value | $109.18 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $5860M |
| Enterprise Value | $5190M |
| Trailing P/E | 18.01 |
| Forward P/E | 11.41 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.30 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 98.48% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 27.36% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.04 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $70.91 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $49.70 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $33.65 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $11.92 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $10.92 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $177.11 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ufp Industries Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $177.11, which is approximately 83.8% above the current market price of $96.35.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Ufp Industries Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.