What is UBER's DCF valuation?

Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 21, 2026, Uber Technologies Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $149.88 per share. With the current market price at $77.49, this represents a potential upside of 93.4%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $104.77
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $149.88
Potential Upside (5-year) 35.2%
Potential Upside (10-year) 93.4%
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.7% - 9.7%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $52017 million in 12-2025 to $124991 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.2%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 52017 18%
12-2026 54666 5%
12-2027 62528 14%
12-2028 70505 13%
12-2029 79527 13%
12-2030 86650 9%
12-2031 91200 5%
12-2032 99270 9%
12-2033 108573 9%
12-2034 119039 10%
12-2035 124991 5%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 20% in 12-2025 to 21% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 10146 20%
12-2026 5761 11%
12-2027 8015 13%
12-2028 10564 15%
12-2029 13552 17%
12-2030 16459 19%
12-2031 17662 19%
12-2032 19590 20%
12-2033 21820 20%
12-2034 24353 20%
12-2035 26016 21%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $270 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 304
12-2027 361
12-2028 438
12-2029 526
12-2030 608
12-2031 670

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 29
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 11

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 7878 2131 469 545 4733
2027 10977 2964 537 327 7148
2028 14498 3907 605 544 9442
2029 18627 5012 683 691 12241
2030 22649 6088 744 445 15373

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 7.7% - 9.7%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 18.0x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 104.77 35.2%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 149.88 93.4%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 124.14 60.2%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 169.53 118.8%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $219,052M
  • 10-Year Model: $311,888M

Investment Conclusion

Is Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) a buy or a sell? Uber Technologies Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 93.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from 20% to 21%)
  • Steady revenue growth (9.2% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $77.49.