As of May 29, 2025, Uber Technologies Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $135.26 per share. With the current market price at $88.26, this represents a potential upside of 53.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $83.68 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $135.26 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -5.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 53.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 9.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $43978 million in 12-2024 to $115728 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 43978 | 18% |
| 12-2025 | 50064 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 55416 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 60247 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 65820 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 74192 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 82355 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 89923 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 98563 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 107394 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 115728 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 22% in 12-2024 to 25% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 9883 | 22% |
| 12-2025 | 5784 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 7999 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 10347 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 13016 | 20% |
| 12-2029 | 16505 | 22% |
| 12-2030 | 18708 | 23% |
| 12-2031 | 20845 | 23% |
| 12-2032 | 23301 | 24% |
| 12-2033 | 25878 | 24% |
| 12-2034 | 28408 | 25% |
with a 5-year average of $326 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 387 |
| 12-2026 | 531 |
| 12-2027 | 701 |
| 12-2028 | 898 |
| 12-2029 | 1122 |
| 12-2030 | 1241 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 31 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 11 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 3667 | 438 | 689 | 583 | 1957 |
| 2026 | 7273 | 808 | 1017 | 378 | 5070 |
| 2027 | 9848 | 1045 | 1106 | 234 | 7463 |
| 2028 | 12776 | 1315 | 1208 | 526 | 9727 |
| 2029 | 16530 | 1668 | 1362 | 593 | 12908 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 83.68 | -5.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 135.26 | 53.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 57.24 | -35.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 96.22 | 9.0% |
Is Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) a buy or a sell? Uber Technologies Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 53.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $88.26.