What is UAV.CN's Intrinsic value?

Global UAV Technologies Ltd (UAV.CN) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 29, 2025, Global UAV Technologies Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.83 to $2.12 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $2.12 +202.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1.83 +161.7%

Is Global UAV Technologies Ltd (UAV.CN) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.70, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Global UAV Technologies Ltd's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.66 0.89
Cost of equity 6.5% 9.6%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 25.9% 26.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.04 0.04
After-tax WACC 6.4% 9.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $0 (FY10-2023) to $0 (FY10-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 1008% to 17%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 12% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $2 $2M 70.2%
10-Year Growth $2 $3M 55.6%
5-Year EBITDA $1 $1M 44.2%
10-Year EBITDA $1 $2M 29.7%

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $2M
Enterprise Value $2M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.10
Current Dividend Yield 58.51%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.04

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 55% $0.64
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 45% $0.46
Weighted Average 100% $1.99

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Global UAV Technologies Ltd's weighted average intrinsic value is $1.99, which is approximately 184.0% above the current market price of $0.70.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (1008% to 17% margin)
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.04)

Given these factors, we believe Global UAV Technologies Ltd is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.