As of May 22, 2025, Under Armour Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $8.81 per share. With the current market price at $6.52, this represents a potential upside of 35.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $7.42 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $8.81 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 13.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 35.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 9.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $5702 million in 03-2024 to $7172 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 5702 | 3% |
| 03-2025 | 5181 | -9% |
| 03-2026 | 5473 | 6% |
| 03-2027 | 5769 | 5% |
| 03-2028 | 6257 | 8% |
| 03-2029 | 6491 | 4% |
| 03-2030 | 6621 | 2% |
| 03-2031 | 6759 | 2% |
| 03-2032 | 6894 | 2% |
| 03-2033 | 7032 | 2% |
| 03-2034 | 7172 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 03-2024 to 4% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 232 | 4% |
| 03-2025 | 210 | 4% |
| 03-2026 | 221 | 4% |
| 03-2027 | 233 | 4% |
| 03-2028 | 253 | 4% |
| 03-2029 | 263 | 4% |
| 03-2030 | 268 | 4% |
| 03-2031 | 273 | 4% |
| 03-2032 | 279 | 4% |
| 03-2033 | 284 | 4% |
| 03-2034 | 290 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $124 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 118 |
| 03-2026 | 124 |
| 03-2027 | 137 |
| 03-2028 | 134 |
| 03-2029 | 134 |
| 03-2030 | 140 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 47 |
| Days Inventory | 117 |
| Days Payables | 67 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 89 | 7 | 30 | (47) | 99 |
| 2026 | 376 | 30 | 125 | 113 | 107 |
| 2027 | 402 | 32 | 132 | 52 | 186 |
| 2028 | 421 | 35 | 143 | 89 | 154 |
| 2029 | 432 | 36 | 149 | 62 | 186 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.42 | 13.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 8.81 | 35.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.72 | 18.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.98 | 22.4% |
Is Under Armour Inc (UAA) a buy or a sell? Under Armour Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Under Armour Inc (UAA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 35.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $6.52.