What is TUP's Intrinsic value?

Tupperware Brands Corp (TUP) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Tupperware Brands Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $264.07 to $4388.72 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $389.52 +76290.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $264.07 +51688.5%
Earnings Power Value $4388.72 +860603.0%

Is Tupperware Brands Corp (TUP) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.51, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Tupperware Brands Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 23.87 234.76
Cost of equity 113.7% 1319.5%
Cost of debt 4.5% 9.1%
Tax rate 26.2% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 2640.37 2640.37
After-tax WACC 3.3% 7.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 5.2% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,304 (FY12-2022) to $1,570 (FY12-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -19% to 0%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $264 $794M 86.1%
10-Year Growth $390 $860M 74.6%
5-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $465M 76.2%
10-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $537M 59.4%

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $136M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.1% - 3.3%
Enterprise Value $1,899M - $4,057M
Net Debt $654M
Equity Value $1,245M - $3,403M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $2,351 - $6,427
Selected Fair Value $4388.72

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $0M
Enterprise Value $654M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.50
Current Dividend Yield 2545.74%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -100.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 2640.37

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 46% $116.85
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 38% $66.02
Earnings Power Value 15% $438.87
Weighted Average 100% $956.53

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Tupperware Brands Corp's intrinsic value is $956.53, which is approximately 187491.7% above the current market price of $0.51.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-19% to 0% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Tupperware Brands Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.