As of June 24, 2025, Tesla Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $301.28 per share. With the current market price at $348.68, this represents a potential upside of -13.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $172.09 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $301.28 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -50.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -13.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $97690 million in 12-2024 to $267168 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 97690 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 88674 | -9% |
| 12-2026 | 105430 | 19% |
| 12-2027 | 122662 | 16% |
| 12-2028 | 138442 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 156240 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 174763 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 195595 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 220150 | 13% |
| 12-2033 | 245663 | 12% |
| 12-2034 | 267168 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 12-2024 to 25% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 7153 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 9390 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 14438 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 20415 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 26920 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 34539 | 22% |
| 12-2030 | 39518 | 23% |
| 12-2031 | 45207 | 23% |
| 12-2032 | 51974 | 24% |
| 12-2033 | 59202 | 24% |
| 12-2034 | 65683 | 25% |
with a 5-year average of $7734 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 9028 |
| 12-2026 | 9736 |
| 12-2027 | 10989 |
| 12-2028 | 12243 |
| 12-2029 | 13398 |
| 12-2030 | 15284 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 13 |
| Days Inventory | 65 |
| Days Payables | 72 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 14754 | 1809 | 7286 | (1,282) | 6941 |
| 2026 | 26504 | 3708 | 11551 | 1086 | 10160 |
| 2027 | 35045 | 5243 | 13439 | 680 | 15683 |
| 2028 | 44268 | 6913 | 15168 | 185 | 22001 |
| 2029 | 54766 | 8870 | 17118 | 780 | 27999 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 172.09 | -50.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 301.28 | -13.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 111.70 | -68.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 191.72 | -45.0% |
Is Tesla Inc (TSLA) a buy or a sell? Tesla Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Tesla Inc (TSLA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -13.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $348.68.