What is TRVG's Intrinsic value?

Trivago NV (TRVG) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of November 8, 2025, Trivago NV's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $12.45 to $12.45 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $12.45 +296.6%

Is Trivago NV (TRVG) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $3.14, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Trivago NV's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.42 0.88
Cost of equity 5.8% 9.8%
Cost of debt 4.5% 4.5%
Tax rate 7.1% 13.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.0% 6.8%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $37M
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.8% - 5.0%
Enterprise Value $546M - $749M
Net Debt $(111)M
Equity Value $657M - $860M
Outstanding Shares 70M
Fair Value $9 - $12
Selected Fair Value $12.45

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $221M
Enterprise Value $93M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.40
Current Dividend Yield 1555.23%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.90

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $1.25
Weighted Average 100% $12.45

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Trivago NV's intrinsic value is $12.45, which is approximately 296.6% above the current market price of $3.14.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-5% to -5% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Trivago NV is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.