As of May 22, 2025, Trulieve Cannabis Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.24 to $11.11 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $2.42 | -61.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $1.24 | -80.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $11.11 | +79.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $2.93 | -52.8% |
Is Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRUL.CN) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $6.21, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Trulieve Cannabis Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| Cost of equity | 7.2% | 11.2% |
| Cost of debt | 14.9% | 87.7% |
| Tax rate | 25.9% | 26.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| After-tax WACC | 9.1% | 38.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $1 | $537M | 42.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $2 | $697M | 23.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $14 | $2,959M | 89.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $10 | $2,361M | 77.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $113M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 38.1% - 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $297M - $1,238M |
| Net Debt | $367M |
| Equity Value | $(69)M - $872M |
| Outstanding Shares | 191M |
| Fair Value | $(0) - $5 |
| Selected Fair Value | $2.93 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1186M |
| Enterprise Value | $1698M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 16.80 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 16.45 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.40% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.02 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $0.73 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $0.31 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $2.22 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $0.29 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $4.18 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Trulieve Cannabis Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $4.18, which is approximately 32.7% below the current market price of $6.21.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Trulieve Cannabis Corp is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.