As of May 22, 2025, TriMas Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $22.57 per share. With the current market price at $25.65, this represents a potential upside of -12.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $18.56 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $22.57 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -27.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -12.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.0% - 10.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $925 million in 12-2024 to $1395 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 925 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 977 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 1008 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 1062 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 1083 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1115 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 1155 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 1207 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 1301 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 1344 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 1395 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2024 to 9% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 24 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 38 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 51 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 67 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 81 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 96 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 99 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 104 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 112 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 116 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 120 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $47 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 50 |
| 12-2026 | 52 |
| 12-2027 | 54 |
| 12-2028 | 55 |
| 12-2029 | 57 |
| 12-2030 | 59 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 60 |
| Days Inventory | 99 |
| Days Payables | 47 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 88 | 7 | 40 | (12) | 53 |
| 2026 | 137 | 13 | 55 | 17 | 52 |
| 2027 | 160 | 17 | 58 | 16 | 70 |
| 2028 | 179 | 20 | 59 | (2) | 102 |
| 2029 | 201 | 24 | 61 | 9 | 107 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 18.56 | -27.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 22.57 | -12.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 26.80 | 4.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 30.14 | 17.5% |
Is TriMas Corp (TRS) a buy or a sell? TriMas Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, TriMas Corp (TRS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -12.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $25.65.