As of May 22, 2025, Troax Group AB (publ) has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $131.15 per share. With the current market price at $152.40, this represents a potential upside of -13.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $108.52 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $131.15 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -28.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -13.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 9.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $278 million in 12-2024 to $558 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 278 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 293 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 320 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 350 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 380 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 403 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 438 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 468 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 486 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 520 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 558 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 11% in 12-2024 to 11% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 31 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 33 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 36 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 39 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 43 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 45 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 49 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 53 | 11% |
| 12-2032 | 55 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 58 | 11% |
| 12-2034 | 63 | 11% |
with a 5-year average of $11 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 12 |
| 12-2026 | 12 |
| 12-2027 | 13 |
| 12-2028 | 14 |
| 12-2029 | 15 |
| 12-2030 | 16 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 66 |
| Days Inventory | 64 |
| Days Payables | 47 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 44 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22 |
| 2026 | 63 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 32 |
| 2027 | 68 | 12 | 15 | 5 | 37 |
| 2028 | 74 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 38 |
| 2029 | 79 | 14 | 17 | 5 | 43 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 108.52 | -28.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 131.15 | -13.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 128.51 | -15.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 146.67 | -3.8% |
Is Troax Group AB (publ) (TROAX.ST) a buy or a sell? Troax Group AB (publ) is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Troax Group AB (publ) (TROAX.ST) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -13.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $152.40.