As of May 22, 2025, Triad Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $22.58 to $219.89 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $212.56 | -25.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $110.59 | -61.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $95.78 | -66.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $219.89 | -22.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $22.58 | -92.0% |
Is Triad Group PLC (TRD.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $284.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Triad Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| Cost of equity | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 6.4% |
| Tax rate | 16.2% | 23.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.0% | 7.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $111 | $17M | 93.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $213 | $35M | 84.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $52 | $7M | 84.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $100 | $15M | 63.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $0M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.9% - 6.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $2M - $2M |
| Net Debt | $(2)M |
| Equity Value | $4M - $4M |
| Outstanding Shares | 0M |
| Fair Value | $21 - $24 |
| Selected Fair Value | $22.58 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $50M |
| Enterprise Value | $48M |
| Trailing P/E | 65.98 |
| Forward P/E | 65.98 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 197.75% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 20.08% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $63.77 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $27.65 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $19.16 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $32.98 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.26 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $145.81 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Triad Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $145.81, which is approximately 48.7% below the current market price of $284.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Triad Group PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.