As of May 22, 2025, Triad Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $212.56 per share. With the current market price at $284.00, this represents a potential upside of -25.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $110.59 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $212.56 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -61.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -25.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $14 million in 03-2024 to $20 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 14 | 5% |
| 03-2025 | 15 | 8% |
| 03-2026 | 15 | 2% |
| 03-2027 | 16 | 3% |
| 03-2028 | 16 | 2% |
| 03-2029 | 17 | 2% |
| 03-2030 | 18 | 7% |
| 03-2031 | 18 | 2% |
| 03-2032 | 19 | 2% |
| 03-2033 | 19 | 2% |
| 03-2034 | 20 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -7% in 03-2024 to 9% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | (1) | -7% |
| 03-2025 | (1) | -4% |
| 03-2026 | (0) | -1% |
| 03-2027 | 0 | 2% |
| 03-2028 | 1 | 4% |
| 03-2029 | 1 | 7% |
| 03-2030 | 1 | 7% |
| 03-2031 | 1 | 8% |
| 03-2032 | 2 | 8% |
| 03-2033 | 2 | 9% |
| 03-2034 | 2 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 0 |
| 03-2026 | 0 |
| 03-2027 | 0 |
| 03-2028 | 0 |
| 03-2029 | 0 |
| 03-2030 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 58 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 18 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| 2026 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| 2027 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2028 | 1 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 1 |
| 2029 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 110.59 | -61.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 212.56 | -25.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 52.20 | -81.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 99.74 | -64.9% |
Is Triad Group PLC (TRD.L) a buy or a sell? Triad Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Triad Group PLC (TRD.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -25.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $284.00.