As of December 15, 2025, TradeDoubler AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $11.22 to $140.25 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $140.25 | +2176.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $60.61 | +883.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $82.67 | +1242.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $28.39 | +360.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $11.22 | +82.2% |
Is TradeDoubler AB (TRAD.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $6.16, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate TradeDoubler AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.42 | 0.5 |
| Cost of equity | 4.7% | 6.6% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 26.6% | 39.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.5% | 5.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $61 | $3,688M | 94.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $140 | $8,565M | 90.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $19 | $1,118M | 82.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $36 | $2,174M | 60.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $34M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 4.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $575M - $752M |
| Net Debt | $(24)M |
| Equity Value | $599M - $776M |
| Outstanding Shares | 61M |
| Fair Value | $10 - $13 |
| Selected Fair Value | $11.22 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $377M |
| Enterprise Value | $353M |
| Trailing P/E | 23.30 |
| Forward P/E | 12.06 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.26 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $42.07 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $15.15 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $16.53 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $4.26 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.12 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $79.14 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, TradeDoubler AB's intrinsic value is $79.14, which is approximately 1184.8% above the current market price of $6.16.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe TradeDoubler AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.